Important Information

Title: Forty Signs of Rain

Author: Kim Stanley Robinson

Publisher: Bantam/Spectra

Cover art: A grim, seeping blue of the capital storm... the font is VERY IN YOUR FACE but the cover art is nice.

Length: 358 pages in hardcover

Rating

4/7 (more political leaflet than novel)

Critical Essays

Politics: an examination of political balance within current speculative fiction

"Robinson's tale lacks the drama and excitement of such other novels dealing with global climate change as Bruce Sterling's Heavy Weather and John Barnes's Mother of Storms, but his portrayal of how actual scientists would deal with this disaster-in-the-making is utterly convincing. Robinson clearly cares deeply about our planet's future, and he makes the reader care as well."

--Publisher's Weekly

One of Robinson’s gift is his portrayal of the scientist in how they think and work. He is exceptional in this regard and this book is an exceptional example of that talent. Note, though, Frank Vanderwal is nowhere near the heroic equal of Sax Russel from Green Mars but he and his ilk are still convincing and enlightening. What is unclear is whether or not this book actually succeeds in making the reader care.

"One of Robinson’s gift is his portrayal of the scientist and how they think and work. He is exceptional in this regard and this book is an exceptional example of that talent. Note, Frank Vanderwal is nowhere near the heroic equal of Sax Russel from Green Mars but he and his ilk are convincing and enlightening. What is unclear is whether or not this book does actually succeed in making the reader care."

--Kirkus

This is pretty insightful. Fans of Robinson have been fans because of his unflinching and practical view of the scientific problems and solutions leading in to immediate issues—most spectacularly in the colonization of Mars. His writing is the difference between the thoughtful movie Deep Impact and the crudely bombastic Armageddon. But the problem in this novel is a strange lack of urgency on the part of the scientists and lobbyists. The main characters have to care about their objectives, don’t they? Even if the rest of the world doesn’t? They don't unlike the Mars colonists who definitely did not lack passion.

"I was struck by the fact that Kim Stanley Robinson’s new novel, Forty Signs Of Rain, is mostly about people going about their daily lives: if you asked them, ‘What have you been up to lately?’ I suspect they’d dismiss the question with an ‘Oh, not much really’. And yet Robinson has managed to concoct a fascinating and very beautiful short novel (short for him, that is) almost solely about ‘not much’."

Stuart Carter

No kidding! This is pretty much accurate and it describes at once what is good and bad about this book. We have the daily lives—actually quite engaging daily lives. And we have the book—which is really about people going about their daily lives in the face of looming catastrophe. But it’s also the problem—it ends up only being the daily lives. This book may exist only as a precursor to the rest of the trilogy.

"Robinson has laid a lot of intriguing groundwork with "Forty Signs of Rain," but he had better make good on it in the next two installments."

--San Francisco Chronicle, Michael Berry

Yeah, but that’s not good enough for us. Even a novel in a trilogy has to have some life of its own or it’s an unnecessary appendage to the rest of the work.

"For the reader, it's an exciting glimpse of science entwined with a frightening and convincing speculative plot. 'Forty Signs of Rain' may be the smartest and best disaster novel you'll read."

--Trashotron.com

We disagree on both. It’s not that smart—there are portions of hard science but we don’t see it occurring or evolving. In many ways, Darwin’s Radio was smarter because the science is driving the story where here science is only driving a political diatribe. And it’s not that frightening—at least not by itself. Maybe the trilogy will get more frightening but as a standalone novel it’s mildly distressing but we’re really left with a bunch of people who aren’t that concerned and a vague notion that Vanderwal is going to save the day.

Robinson’s one of our best—one of the very best.

But he wrote a benign but mediocre book. We suppose that for NASCAR fans this would be kind of like watching a race with no crashes with maybe a weather delay in the middle of it.

Forty Signs of Rain is about global warming and the looming “ecotastrophe” that will come from the result of greenhouse gases. In fact, the most absolutely chilling moment in the entire book is the very first bit:

The Earth is bathed in a flood of sunlight. A fierce inundation of photons--on average, 342 joules per second per square meter. 4,185 joules (one calorie) will raise the temperature of one kilogram of water by one degree Celsius. If all of this energy were captured by the Earth's atmosphere, its temperature would rise by ten degrees Celsius in one day.

Luckily much of it radiates back to space. How much depends on albedo and the chemical composition of the atmosphere, both of which vary over time.

A good portion of Earth's albedo, or reflectivity, is created by its polar ice caps. If polar ice and snow were to shrink significantly, more solar energy would stay on Earth. Sunlight would penetrate oceans previously covered by ice, and warm the water. This would add heat and melt more ice, in a positive feedback loop.

The Arctic Ocean ice pack reflects back out to space a few percent of the total annual solar energy budget. When the Artic ice pack was first measured by nuclear submarines in the 1950's, it averaged thirty feet thick in midwinter. By the end of the century it was down to fifteen. Then one August the ice broke up into large tabular bergs, drifting on the currents, colliding and separating, leaving broad lanes of water open to the continuous polar summer sunlight. The next year the breakup started in July, and at times more than half the surface of the Arctic Ocean was open water. The third year, the breakup began in May.

That was last year.

Now this—this is truly exceptional. This is a tremendous opening--most especially for fans of Robinson's work. How chilling is that reading about the ice break-up? That’s the novel we wanted. That’s what we shelled out $25.00 for!!!

And this sort of looming novel of global catastrophe is what Rain masquerades itself to be. We're expecting profound evidence, panicked populations, anxious scientists, desperate politicians, and daring plans of salvation of genius. Who better to do something like this than Robinson?

And it may be that the projected trilogy will end up there. But as for this novel—this one book—what we get is a series of the “days in the life” of several scientists and one lobbyist. Robinson being Robinson these vignettes are rather engaging. Simple trials of parenting young children, the bureaucratic maneuverings of scientists in labs, the snarling mess of congressional negotiation, and even planning meals for guests take on a kind of resonance with the reader because the characters are sharp and very, very thoughtful. Robinson’s hallmark has always been that his characters really think and ponder consequences and these ponderings can lend the mundane a kind of magic. So these moments end up being of interest and move the book along but the magic vanishes when counter-pointed by the very weak development of the disaster itself.

This book could also serve double-duty as a political broadside. It’s very short, highly readable, and highly biased. This is not to say that we’re one of those outfits that regard global warming as fictional—we’re not; it is a well-agreed upon phenomenon by the vast, vast majority of scientists. What’s in question is what to do about it and what the likely effects are. Here there is quite a bit of controversy and on these subjects, Robinson gives us only one side.

Even that wouldn’t be so bad—after all, we’re following a group of very committed scientists who are convinced of their own position—but it’s the other people they run in to that are the problem. Every dissenting opinion put forth by the supporting cast is caricatured as absurdly religious, right-wing, uneducated, and/or pretentious. It's like the fat cop eating doughnuts and drinking coffee in the horror flick who just won't believe the kids' evidence that a monster is running loose in Ruralville, USA. That sort of drives us nuts. Can we have a rational debate please?

Ignoring the bias, the point of the novel is rather interesting: it very accurately portrays how a nation and a people can exist in denial over looming catastrophe as they go about their daily lives—in fact, we see it in the scientists themselves who seem equal-parts concerned with global destruction and overcooked pasta. The creeping doom of the willingly ignorant is one the best aspects of Rain. But that aspect is undercut because there doesn’t seem to be anything else going on: no war on terrorism, no legislation regarding education, no thought to any kind of culture wars from same-sex marriage to space exploration, not even any office politics. The entire world setting seems to reduce to either 1) people who believe in and are worried about global warming (smart people) or 2) people who don’t (dumb people). There’s nothing else.

[Not precisely true—there is a segment of the novel dealing with patenting a particular medicinal treatment involving the targeted delivery of proteins that (at this point) has nothing to do with global warming but does serve as a nice platform with which to attack Capitalism.

We’re avowed Capitalists. We’ll fly that flag. The venture capitalists funding the research companies in this book were created by the wealth that Robinson continues to attack. The scientists come out of universities and programs endowed and funded by private contributions generated from the wealth that Robinson continues to attack. We’re so tired of wealth being regarded as something bad and intrinsically evil… it is not! Bill Gates gives tons of money—especially staggering sums to research world problems like overpopulation. Rockefeller and Carnegie gave tons of money to a variety of causes. Capitalism allows for the freedom of scientists to act in concert with—or, more importantly—against governmental mandates.]

Enough of this. As you can see, Robinson’s political message was quite chafing.

As we mentioned above, this is a very short book that is much more of a prelude to a real work than a novel on its own. This kind of status renders it as a kind of notable but completely forgettable book. As a part of a trilogy, it will be remembered only for the series itself and probably will not even be required reading for the trilogy if the subsequent books are far superior.

We're not going to attempt to place the importance of what will ultimately be a trilogy; rather, just this book. As a book--even if it is the first part of a trilogy--it cannot stand on its own merits and will be forgettable by everyone who isn't a member of Greenpeace or otherwise very deeply committed to the politics of global warming. Forty Signs of Rain contains no moments of daring, no startling moments of insight, and certainly none of the sense of wonder or fear that one would normally associate with good science fiction. In fact, absent the references to current and modern politics, this would be a very, very drab book. The moments of charm provided by the main cast of characters are not nearly enough to propel it in to real importance. Without the support of the subsequent novels--which will have to be very good indeed to rescue this book--Rain will very quickly fade in importance.

Those readers familiar with and committed to Robinson's work--particularly the less well-known Antarctica and A Short, Sharp Shock, will probably be right at home and pleased with this book. As we mentioned above, those people looking to reaffirm a political position of action against the threat of global warming will find a great deal to enjoy and its publication just prior to a big presidential election is nicely timed for those people. It's very hard for us imagine any other kind of audience truly appreciating this book... it certainly is not the best introduction to Robinson's work.

There are much better disaster novels out there. If you're looking for that particular thrill or insight you shouldn't be looking here. Even if you end up liking Rain to some modest extent you're still in for a long wait while Robinson finishes up the next couple of books. Readers of politically conservative convictions (if you like all of Terry Goodkind's preachings you fall in to this camp) will get pretty badly irritated by large portions. Rain is plain rice; it's pancakes without syrup, popcorn without salt and butter, a spouse without in-laws; it's just very, very unremarkable.